Prediction of distribution area of main noxious and miscellaneous weeds in Xinjiang based on MaxEnt model

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 基于最大熵模型的新疆主要有毒杂草分布区预测 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202205061252 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金面上项目（BK20201393）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（42271493） Prediction of distribution area main noxious and miscellaneous weeds in Xinjiang based on MaxEnt model Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 访问统计 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献 资源附件 文章评论 摘要:近年来，在气候变化和人类放牧活动的共同作用下，新疆地区有毒杂草发展迅速，草地退化严重，影响了新疆草地生态系统及草地畜牧业的发展。了解新疆主要有毒杂草的时空分布及影响其分布的主要生态因子，对新疆畜牧业可持续发展具有重要意义。使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt），预测了不同气候情景下新疆主要有毒杂草的潜在分布区。结果表明：1）使用MaxEnt最大熵模型在三种气候情景下的模拟精度值均大于0.8，处于"好"水平，表明模型模拟结果有较高的可信度；2）白喉乌头受等温性和最干月降水量的影响，主要分布在阿勒泰等地区；无叶假木贼主要受到放牧率和最干月降水量的影响，沿天山山脉以及塔里木盆地西、北部分布；影响纳里橐吾的是平均气温日较差和等温性，分布在巴音郭楞州等地；小花棘豆主要受到平均气温日较差和降水量季节性变化的影响，集中分布在新疆西北部地区；苦豆子受海拔和最冷季降水量影响，主要分布于塔里木盆地等地区；3）有毒杂草入侵概率较低的区域（非适生区）占比51.69%；入侵的高危区面积占比5.62%，主要集中在阿勒泰、塔城、昌吉自治州、五家渠、博尔塔拉州、伊犁自治州、石河子市、乌鲁木齐市、阿克苏、克孜勒苏州和喀什；4）未来气候情景下，新疆主要有毒杂草呈现进一步扩散趋势；SSP245情境下有毒杂草扩张蔓延趋势比在SSP126情境下更为明显，这说明在较高辐射强迫的气候情境下，有毒杂草表现出较高的适应能力；未来平均气温日较差变小的区域更易被有毒杂草入侵，而最干月份降水量明显增加的区域，有毒杂草入侵的可能性较小，其面积发生退缩。 Abstract:In recent years, under the influences climate change grazing activities, grassland has been seriously degraded, which greatly affected development ecosystem animal husbandry Xinjiang. Therefore, it is great significance to understand spatio-temporal ecological factors affecting their for sustainable In this paper, was adopted predict potential areas different scenarios. The results showed that:1) simulation accuracy values three scenarios were all greater than 0.8, at good level, indicating that have a high degree confidence. 2) historical period, Aconitum leucostomum mainly influenced by isothermality precipitation driest month, distributed such as Altai. Anabasis aphylla rates along Tianshan Mountains around western northern parts Tarim Basin. influencing Ligularia narynensis mean diurnal range isothermality, Bayin Goleng Prefecture. Oxytropis glabra seasonality, northwestern part Sophora alopecuroides altitude coldest quarter found 3) with low probability invasion accounted 51.69%. risk 5.62%, concentrated Altay, Tacheng, Changji Autonomous Prefecture, Wujiaqu, Boltala, Yili Shihezi, Urumqi, Aksu, Kizilsu Kashgar. 4) future scenarios, show trend further spread. expansion SSP245 scenario more obvious SSP126 scenario, higher adaptability radiative forcing scenario. Areas where ranges become smaller are susceptible weeds, while significantly months less likely be invaded undergoes retreat.